This week we have all watched in horror as thousands of homes have been lost in the recent California Wild Fires.

While the wild fires are almost an annual event now do in part to mismanagement of public and private lands as well as urban sprawl, this year was especially devastating with over 1 Million residents evacuating thus far.

Why does a Columbia Missouri real estate Agent pay so much attention to a natural disaster in California you ask? Simple economics for us in Mid-Missouri is the short answer. In my almost 20 years of involvement in the Missouri real estate market I have noted a substantial surge of California property buyers after every major natural disaster and I predict this one will be no different.

Why do California residents choose Missouri? That answer is simple as well. California property owners are some of the savviest home buyers in the nation. They generally do their home work when faced with relocation. Missouri offers more bang for their buck than most competing states and their dollar has considerably more buying power than it did in California. Once a California home owner cashes out they are surprised at just how far their proceeds will go. Funds from the sale or insurance settlement for a modest 2 bedroom ranch style home on 5 acres in southern California can be converted to a ranch consisting of 200-300 acres with a 4+ bedroom modern home with all of the necessary outbuildings. This is an example but I have seen it happen time and time again.

Another major reason that California property owners relocate to Missouri is for the same reason they are in Southern California to begin with. They tend to be lovers of nature. While Missouri does not have the desert landscape and terrain they are accustom to, our hardwoods, forests, pristine rivers and wildlife are enough to please any nature lover.

Southern Californian’s typically are horse lovers. There is an estimated 300,000+ horses in San Diego County alone. Missouri’s hardy pastures and rolling hillsides are well suited to horses, cattle or any other type of livestock.

And as for cattle, Missouri is second only to Texas for cattle production and even leads Texas as the number 1 state in the nation for cattle per acre.

According to one of our biggest referral partners Al Rosson of Cabrillo Mortgage & Realty Services, property owners have begun inquiries in to selling before the fires are even out. Al says that this is not unusual and that even home owners that did not suffer a loss often consider selling due to the fact they are simple tired of all the near misses.

When I asked Al about the future of real estate in San Diego he replied “With the natural beauty of San Diego and weather that is remarkably similar to the Canary Islands San Diego County will continue to have some of the most sought after property in the nation. While many residents will relocated soon after this fire, there are many more that are waiting to move in. We will recover and be stronger than ever. We always do”.

So while our hearts go out to all of the home owners in Southern California that have suffered a loss I can assure them there is a brighter road ahead….the road to Missouri.

~Rhonda McMillan

Since my last post “Lending Crisis May Soon Be Over” I have been inundated with phone calls and emails for an explanation of why I feel that the worst may be behind us in this recent housing market crisis.

We will undoubtedly feel the affect of the sub-prime fiasco through 2008. However, the figures of mortgages in default are minute when you look at the number of sub-prime loans and even smaller when you look at the total housing market. The figures simply do NOT justify the “Chicken Little” “the sky is falling” mentality of the liberal press.

The larger problem is the lack of confidence by consumers all of this negative press has brought about. Perception is the key and the perception of the crisis is far worse than the crisis itself.

Even for home owners that find themselves owing more on their home than it is worth can simply sit it out and wait for the market to rebound. And unlike finding yourself with stocks that have been devaluated your home is a usable and necessary asset that provides utility while you await a market correction.

In addition to pending legislation to assist distressed homeowners the suggestion by the Bush Administration that lenders work with troubled borrowers appears to have resonated. If you are in a situation where your ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) has raised to a level that is no longer sustainable simply contact your lender. You will in all likelihood discover they will work with you. This will enable you to keep your home and credit rating which is far more desirable than the alternative.

Just remember that history teaches us that the real estate market will rebound. It always has. And you will once again find yourself with equity in your home. Stop listening to the doomsayers and research the REAL figures for yourself.

While I follow real estate markets nationwide I of course pay special attention to Columbia real estate trends. Just like the rest of the nation, new home starts in Columbia MO are down. This will reduce inventory and cause housing prices to stabilize. Sales of existing and new homes are down slightly but by no means dead. The only viable explanation for the recent downward trend in home sales is the negative press the housing industry is receiving nationally. Once excess inventory is absorbed the local market will get back on track.

With fewer housing starts in recent months in combination with stronger consumer confidence the panic selling should subside and the market stabilize.

But the worst is only over if we ignore an extremely biased main stream media and research the facts for ourselves.

~Rhonda McMillan
Broker

The darkest days in the housing industry may soon be behind us. Although the National Association of REALTORS® has reported dismal figures for existing home resale’s for June, July, August and September for this year other figures such as new home and condo sales hint of renewed consumer confidence on the horizon.

With the drop in both interest rates and the median home price nationally it may be time to purchase as the cost of housing is more affordable now than in recent years.

While the sub-prime lending fiasco made great headlines for the liberal press the reality is that it affected a very small segment of the housing market. Even a smaller portion of the market was affected here in Missouri as the sub-prime loans were never truly embraced by local lenders. Missouri banks and mortgage companies based in Missouri primarily stayed with conventional loans requiring income verification and down payments of 10-20%.

The indirect affect on the local housing market was the shaken confidence of home buyers with all the media attention given to the credit crunch created by sub-prime loans going into default even though it was a national, not a local phenomenon.

While the Dow quickly soared back to over 14000 shortly after the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates by a half of a point, today Wall Street fell 140 points at the time of this article after Citigroup’s dismal earnings numbers and news of a potential $100 billion emergency fund to help out three of the largest U.S. banks hit by the chaos created by sub-prime mortgages.

So is the worst behind us? That depends entirely on consumer confidence really and unfortunately the media can all too easily sway and shaken this confidence. The press has begun irresponsibly throwing about the “recession” word of late. Keep in mind that a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and we have yet to log the first. Is this once again an attempt of the media to create rather than report the news? Given the deep hatred of President Bush by the liberal press it is a distinct possibility.

Before you decide not to buy another home or continue to put off a purchase you should do the research for yourself. This is far too important of a decision to leave up to a clearly biased media. And while researching check out how much new housing starts have declined in the past few months. This will lead to a much lower inventory in months to come and could begin a substantial increase in new home costs. Especially if the Federal Reserve again cuts interest rates soon as has been predicted by many.

~Rhonda McMillan